Predictions for the Next Year and Beyond
On Friday, June 24th, the world learned that UK voters did something they will come to regret.
They voted to leave the EU.
I am no expert, but I believe that this was a mistake on many levels. It is the first of many failures for the UK.
The vote does not immediately eject the UK from the EU, and several steps must be taken before they can make their Brexit official.
The first thing they need to do is find a new prime minister since David Cameron resigned as a result of the vote. None of this is news now, two days later. I realize that.
There has been enough coverage of this story on many reputable sites, written by authors much more knowledgeable on the subject than I am. Lord knows, the internet doesn’t need me stumbling around it.
Still, since it has been too long since I posted something here, I thought that this would be the perfect subject to get myself back into the swing of things. Though this site is primarily dedicated to my fiction writing, many of you know that I like to touch on political subjects now and then, albeit somewhat ineptly.
These are my predictions about what I call the “Brexit Effect:”
#1. The UK will be negatively affected by the Brexit more than any other nation or region.
This might seem obvious, but there has been a lot of speculation about how the Brexit will affect the EU, the USA, Russia, Africa and probably just about every region and nation in the world.
My prediction is that the UK will bear the brunt of their exit and suffer economically, politically and culturally both in the long term and the short.
At the very least, the EU will seek to make an example of the UK by showing the world that the consequences of leaving them are more costly than those of remaining.
I think that Brussels and constituent nations will do this by revoking visas, imposing relatively high trade tariffs and making it difficult for UK businesses to operate in the EU.
This might backfire on them, but if they can keep their shit together, I don’t think that it will happen. Some believe that other nations such as Greece and Poland will be inspired by the Brexit and stage referendums of their own, but I don’t see that happening because I don’t think that the UK will prosper outside the EU.
Basically, the EU holds all the cards here and every possible subsequent move by the UK seems like it can only be worse than the last.
#2. Great Britain and the UK will cease to exist.
Great Britain, which is made up of Scotland, England and Wales, will split up eventually. Northern Ireland, which together with Great Britain makes up the UK, will also become independent.
I admit that these countries will not be able to be completely independent, which is why I think that they will seek to meld with the EU independently or, in the case of Northern Ireland, rejoin with the Republic of Ireland, ending decades of political division among the Irish. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my part and slightly romantic. But I believe that the Northern Irish mostly voted to stay with the EU.
Scotland had a referendum of their own in 2015 about whether or not they should remain with or leave the UK. They voted to remain, but purportedly because of their desire to stay with the EU.
I think that Scotland at the very least will separate from the UK if the other countries do not.
I’m not really sure about Wales, mostly due to my own ignorance of the country. But it seems to me that a large portion of the Welsh population identifies as British and maybe even English.
England will end up alone, with the rest of the UK becoming part of the Commonwealth at the very least.
I also foresee that the monarchy will fall in the long term or at least be contained in England, with the Commonwealth dissolving completely.
#3. The UK will become increasingly right-wing and xenophobic despite a large leftist movement
The Brexit is a wake-up call for all left-wing voters and progressives in the UK. They are now probably realizing that they shit the bed by not voting and are regretting it.
This regret will turn into activism, feeding the growth of left-wing parties. But it will not be enough. The old, racist nationalists and their offspring will prevail. This will result in a cultural shift toward extremism and violence like what we see in the USA every day.
Progressive and left-wing citizens will flee the UK at surprising levels. The rest will stay and make it as difficult as possible for the right-wing parties to enact their agendas, but will ultimately fail.
Only until the oldest generation dies out and the youngest comes of age will this cultural blight change. I predict that this will happen in approximately 10 years.
#4. The EU and the USA will become more progressive.
With the failure of the UK’s so-called independence, nations around the world will see that political unity is the way to go. It was true in the forties and it’s true now.
The failures of the EU, i.e. predatory lending, preferential treatment of multinational corporations, ineffectual supranational policies and unjust displays of military might, will actually push for progressive reform on the European national level with nations remaining in the EU, similar to what is happening in the USA.
The UK’s example of what not to do will bolster progressive movements in the USA on both the federal and state levels. Xenophobia will eventually become taboo and shunned.
The EU will quickly learn its lesson and will try to make the UK learn its own. However, the UK will get its biggest lesson from within as it begins to tear itself apart and finally see the error of its ways. Coming to terms with the injustice of its historical global hegemony will be a huge part of this lesson.
#5. The Brexit will be short-lived.
Although the UK will be “independent” for many years, it will ultimately rejoin the EU, drop the pound, dissolve the monarchy and become a full-fledged member of the EU.
The only reason that it has sustained its special status in the EU to this point is the same reason why the Brexit referendum was successful:
Backward, bigoted nationalism.
Both the UK and the EU will learn that nationalism, even the kind of pluralistic nationalism that exists in the EU, can only result in division. It always has and it always will.
Similar to the flawed reasoning and conflict of so-called “states rights” in the USA, placing more value on one group, state or nation can only end in conflict.
I think that the UK will be back in the EU around 2026, ten years from now.
Those are my predictions based on what I have been reading and hearing.
I would like to take this time to state that I do not believe the people of the UK or any other nation to be inherently evil. Inherently flawed, yes. We all are. Naturally, some of these people are inherently evil, like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson.
But the true source of what is going on in the UK and everywhere around the world can be boiled down to one thing: Ignorance.
We ignorantly believe that “our ways” are better than “their ways.” These old ways of division only hold us back.
Religion, nationality, culture, sex, gender, race, class: we let these things divide us. We let them divide us because we ignorantly believe they are more important than human lives.
We have to realize that none of these things are more important than the truth that unifies us:
If we never learn that lesson, we’ll be brexiting forever.
But what the hell do I know?
What do you think?
I want to know, so leave me a comment here or on Facebook. Looking forward to it.